Ensemble representation of uncertainty in Lagrangian satellite rainfall estimates

A new algorithm called Lagrangian Simulation (LSIM) has been developed that enables the interpolation uncertainty present in Lagrangian satellite rainfall algorithms such as the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) to be characterized using an ensemble product. The new algorithm generates ensemble sequences of rainfall fields conditioned on multiplatform multisensor microwave satellite data, demonstrating a conditional simulation approach that overcomes the problem of discontinuous uncertainty fields inherent in this type of product. Each ensemble member is consistent with the information present in the satellite data, while variation between members is indicative of uncertainty in the rainfall retrievals. LSIM is based on the combination of a Markov weather generator, conditioned on both previous and subsequent microwave measurements, and a global optimization procedure that uses simulated annealing to constrain the generated rainfall fields to display appropriate spatial structures. The new algorithm has been validated over a region of the continental United States and has been shown to provide reliable estimates of both point uncertainty distributions and wider spatiotemporal structures

Blue Nile Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change

This study describes implementation of hydrological climate change impact assessment tool utilising a combination of statistical spatiotemporal downscaling and an operational hydrological model known as the Nile Forecasting System. A spatial rainfall generator was used to produce high-resolution (daily, 20km) gridded rainfall data required by the distributed hydrological model from monthly GCM outputs. The combined system was used to assess the sensitivity of upper Blue Nile flows at Diem flow gauging station to changes in future rainfall during the June-September rainy season based on output from three GCMs. The assessment also incorporated future evapotranspiration changes over the basin. The climate change scenarios derived in this study were broadly in line with other studies, with the majority of scenarios indicating wetter conditions in the future. Translating the impacts into runoff in the basin showed increased future mean flows, although these would be offset to some degree by rising evapotranspiration. Impacts on extreme runoff indicated the possibility of more severe floods in future. These are likely to be exacerbated by land-use changes including overgrazing, deforestation, and improper farming practices. Blue Nile basin flood managers therefore need to continue to prepare for the possibility of more frequent floods by adopting a range of measures to minimise loss of life and guard against other flood damage

Primary production during nutrient-induced blooms at elevated CO2 concentrations

Mesocosms experiments (PeECE II and PeECE III) were carried out in 9 transparent mesocosms. Prior to the experimental period, the seawater carbonate system was manipulated to achieve three different levels of CO2. At the onset of the experimental period, nutrients were added to all mesocosms in order to initiate phytoplankton blooms. Rates of primary production were measured by in-situ incubations using 14C-incorporation and oxygen production/consumption. Particulate primary production by 14C was also size fractionated and compared with phytoplankton species composition. Nutrient supply increased the primary production rates, and a net autotrophic phase with 14C-fixation rates up to 4 times higher than initial was observed midway through the 24 days experiment before net community production returned to near-zero and 14C-fixation rates relaxed back to lower than initial. We found a trend in the 14C-based measurements towards higher cumulative primary production at higher pCO2, consistent with recently published results for DIC removal (Riebesell et al., 2007). There where found differences to the size fractionated primary production response to CO2 treatments. The plankton composition changes throughout the bloom, however, resulted in no significant response until the final phase of the experiment where phytoplankton growth became nutrient limited, and phytoplankton community changed from diatom to flagellate dominance. This opens for the two alternative hypotheses that such an effect is associated with mineral nutrient limited growth, and/or with phytoplankton species composition. The lack of a clear net heterotrophic phase in the last part of the experiment supports the idea that a substantial part of production in the upper layer was not degraded locally, but either accumulated there or was exported vertically

Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting: A Lagrangian Pixel-Based Approach

Short-term high-resolution precipitation forecasting has important implications for navigation, flood forecasting, and other hydrological and meteorological concerns. This article introduces a pixel-based algorithm for Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (SQPF) using radar-based rainfall data. The proposed algorithm called Pixel- Based Nowcasting (PBN) tracks severe storms with a hierarchical mesh-tracking algorithm to capture storm advection in space and time at high resolution from radar imagers. The extracted advection field is then extended to nowcast the rainfall field in the next 3. hr based on a pixel-based Lagrangian dynamic model. The proposed algorithm is compared with two other nowcasting algorithms (WCN: Watershed-Clustering Nowcasting and PER: PERsistency) for ten thunderstorm events over the conterminous United States. Object-based verification metric and traditional statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm. It is shown that the proposed algorithm is superior over comparison algorithms and is effective in tracking and predicting severe storm events for the next few hours. © 2012 Elsevier B.V

Consistency of cruise data of the CARINA database in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

Initially a North Atlantic project, the CARINA carbon synthesis was extended to include the Southern Ocean. Carbon and relevant hydrographic and geochemical ancillary data from cruises all across the Arctic Mediterranean Seas, Atlantic and Southern Ocean were released to the public and merged into a new database as part of the CARINA synthesis effort. Of a total of 188 cruises, 37 cruises are part of the Southern Ocean, including 11 from the Atlantic sector. The variables from all Southern Ocean cruises, including dissolved inorganic carbon (TCO2), total alkalinity, oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and silicate, were examined for cruise-to-cruise consistency in one collective effort. Seawater pH and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are also part of the database, but the pH quality control (QC) is described in another Earth System Science Data publication, while the complexity of the Southern Ocean physics and biogeochemistry prevented a proper QC analysis of the CFCs. The area-specific procedures of quality control, including crossover analysis between stations and inversion analysis of all crossover data (i.e. secondary QC), are briefly described here for the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Data from an existing, quality controlled database (GLODAP) were used as a reference for our computations – however, the reference data were included into the analysis without applying the recommended GLODAP adjustments so the corrections could be independently verified. The outcome of this effort is an internally consistent, high-quality carbon data set for all cruises, including the reference cruises. The suggested corrections by the inversion analysis were allowed to vary within a fixed envelope, thus accounting for natural variability. The percentage of cruises adjusted ranged from 31% (for nitrate) to 54% (for phosphate) depending on the variable

Pelagic community production and carbon-nutrient stoichiometry under variable ocean acidification in an Arctic fjord

Net community production (NCP) and carbon to nutrient uptake ratios were studied during a large-scale mesocosm experiment on ocean acidification in Kongsfjorden, western Svalbard, during June–July 2010. Nutrient depleted fjord water with natural plankton assemblages, enclosed in nine mesocosms of ~ 50 m3 in volume, was exposed to pCO2 levels ranging initially from 185 to 1420 μatm. NCP estimations are the cumulative change in dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations after accounting for gas exchange and total alkalinity variations. Stoichiometric coupling between inorganic carbon and nutrient net uptake is shown as a ratio of NCP to a cumulative change in inorganic nutrients. Phytoplankton growth was stimulated by nutrient addition half way through the experiment and three distinct peaks in chlorophyll a concentration were observed during the experiment. Accordingly, the experiment was divided in three phases. Cumulative NCP was similar in all mesocosms over the duration of the experiment. However, in phases I and II, NCP was higher and in phase III lower at elevated pCO2. Due to relatively low inorganic nutrient concentration in phase I, C : N and C : P uptake ratios were calculated only for the period after nutrient addition (phase II and phase III). For the total post-nutrient period (phase II + phase III) ratios were close to Redfield, however they were lower in phase II and higher in phase III. Variability of NCP, C : N and C : P uptake ratios in different phases reflects the effect of increasing CO2 on phytoplankton community composition and succession. The phytoplankton community was composed predominantly of haptophytes in phase I, prasinophytes, dinoflagellates, and cryptophytes in phase II, and haptophytes, prasinophytes, dinoflagellates and chlorophytes in phase III (Schulz et al., 2013). Increasing ambient inorganic carbon concentrations have also been shown to promote primary production and carbon assimilation. For this study, it is clear that the pelagic ecosystem response to increasing CO2 is more complex than that represented in previous work, e.g. Bellerby et al. (2008). Carbon and nutrient uptake representation in models should, where possible, be more focused on individual plankton functional types as applying a single stoichiometry to a biogeochemical model with regard to the effect of increasing pCO2 may not always be optimal. The phase variability in NCP and stoichiometry may be better understood if CO2 sensitivities of the plankton's functional type biogeochemical uptake kinetics and trophic interactions are better constrained

Marine ecosystem community carbon and nutrient uptake stoichiometry under varying ocean acidification during the PeECE III experiment

Changes to seawater inorganic carbon and nutrient concentrations in response to the deliberate CO2 perturbation of natural plankton assemblages were studied during the 2005 Pelagic Ecosystem CO2 Enrichment (PeECE III) experiment. Inverse analysis of the temporal inorganic carbon dioxide system and nutrient variations was used to determine the net community stoichiometric uptake characteristics of a natural pelagic ecosystem perturbed over a range of pCO2 scenarios (350, 700 and 1050 μatm). Nutrient uptake showed no sensitivity to CO2 treatment. There was enhanced carbon production relative to nutrient consumption in the higher CO2 treatments which was positively correlated with the initial CO2 concentration. There was no significant calcification response to changing CO2 in Emiliania huxleyi by the peak of the bloom and all treatments exhibited low particulate inorganic carbon production (~15 μmol kg−1). With insignificant air-sea CO2 exchange across the treatments, the enhanced carbon uptake was due to increase organic carbon production. The inferred cumulative C:N:P stoichiometry of organic production increased with CO2 treatment from 1:6.3:121 to 1:7.1:144 to 1:8.25:168 at the height of the bloom. This study discusses how ocean acidification may incur modification to the stoichiometry of pelagic production and have consequences for ocean biogeochemical cycling

Daily Precipitation over Southern Africa: A New Resource for Climate Studies

This paper describes a new high-resolution multiplatform multisensor satellite rainfall product for southern Africa covering the period 1993–2002. The microwave infrared rainfall algorithm (MIRA) employed to generate the rainfall estimates combines high spatial and temporal resolution Meteosat infrared data with infrequent Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) overpasses. A transfer function relating Meteosat thermal infrared cloud brightness temperatures to SSM/I rainfall estimates is derived using collocated data from the two instruments and then applied to the full coverage of the Meteosat data. An extensive continental-scale validation against synoptic station data of both the daily MIRA precipitation product and a normalized geostationary IR-only Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index (GPI) demonstrates a consistent advantage using the former over the latter for rain delineation. Potential uses for the resulting high-resolution daily rainfall dataset are discussed

Effect of increased pCO2 on the planktonic metabolic balance during a mesocosm experiment in an Arctic fjord

The effect of ocean acidification on the balance between gross community production (GCP) and community respiration (CR) (i.e., net community production, NCP) of plankton communities was investigated in summer 2010 in Kongsfjorden, west of Svalbard. Surface water, which was characterized by low concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients and chlorophyll a (a proxy of phytoplankton biomass), was enclosed in nine mesocosms and subjected to eight pCO2 levels (two replicated controls and seven enhanced pCO2 treatments) for one month. Nutrients were added to all mesocosms on day 13 of the experiment, and thereafter increase of chlorophyll a was provoked in all mesocosms. No clear trend in response to increasing pCO2 was found in the daily values of NCP, CR, and GCP. For further analysis, these parameters were cumulated for the following three periods: phase 1 – end of CO2 manipulation until nutrient addition (t4 to t13); phase 2 – nutrient addition until the second chlorophyll a minimum (t14 to t21); phase 3 – the second chlorophyll a minimum until the end of this study (t22 to t28). A significant response was detected as a decrease of NCP with increasing pCO2 during phase 3. CR was relatively stable throughout the experiment in all mesocosms. As a result, the cumulative GCP significantly decreased with increasing pCO2 during phase 3. After the nutrient addition, the ratios of cumulative NCP to cumulative consumption of NO3 and PO4 showed a significant decrease during phase 3 with increasing pCO2. The results suggest that elevated pCO2 influenced cumulative NCP and stoichiometric C and nutrient coupling of the plankton community in a high-latitude fjord only for a limited period. However provided that there were some differences or weak correlations between NCP data based on different methods in the same experiment, this conclusion should be taken with caution

Overview of the Nordic Seas CARINA data and salinity measurements

Water column data of carbon and carbon relevant hydrographic and hydrochemical parameters from 188 previously non-publicly available cruises in the Arctic, Atlantic, and Southern Ocean have been retrieved and merged into a new database: CARINA (CARbon IN the Atlantic). The data have been subject to rigorous quality control (QC) in order to ensure highest possible quality and consistency. The data for most of the parameters included were examined in order to quantify systematic biases in the reported values, i.e. secondary quality control. Significant biases have been corrected for in the data products, i.e. the three merged files with measured, calculated and interpolated values for each of the three CARINA regions; the Arctic Mediterranean Seas (AMS), the Atlantic (ATL) and the Southern Ocean (SO). With the adjustments the CARINA database is consistent both internally as well as with GLODAP (Key et al., 2004) and is suitable for accurate assessments of, for example, oceanic carbon inventories and uptake rates and for model validation. The Arctic Mediterranean Seas include the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, and the quality control was carried out separately in these two areas. This contribution provides an overview of the CARINA data from the Nordic Seas and summarises the findings of the QC of the salinity data. One cruise had salinity data that were of questionable quality, and these have been removed from the data product. An evaluation of the consistency of the quality controlled salinity data suggests that they are consistent to at least ±0.005